"DipodomysDeserti" (dipodomysdeserti)
06/01/2020 at 18:10 • Filed to: None
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"DipodomysDeserti" (dipodomysdeserti)
06/01/2020 at 18:10 • Filed to: None | 1
| 44 |
Not sure if this has been posted before. Gotta say I’m not too surprised at the US mortality rate compared to western European countries. People conflate poor access to healthcare in the US with poor healthcare overall. That’s not always the case. Also, what the hell is going on in Belgium? They haven’t been in the news at all over here. Almost 3x the number of deaths per 100k people than the US. There are eight European countries with a higher deaths/100k than the US. That surprised me a little bit, considering how we’ve been told that we were late to the game. I was also surprised that the UK now has more deaths than Italy, and has a similar death/100k which is almost twice that of the US. We’ll see if we catch up or not after all these protests. Pretty shocked to see so many people crammed together in NYC. Tear gas can’t be good when you’re possible fighting a respiratory infection.
!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!
ranwhenparked
> DipodomysDeserti
06/01/2020 at 18:17 |
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Couple things to consider, though. No figures are final until the pandemic ends, and we also still don’t know how many undiagnosed asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic cases there really are in either Europe or North America, but indications are that it is a very big number that could dwarf the confirmed case count so far. In which case, it would dramatically improve every country’s figures, if accurately tabulated.
Also, our numbers would look a lot better, if not for our bafflingly infuriating failure to do much of anything to protect our elderly and immunocompromised residents in nursing homes and long term care facilities earlier in the pandemic, even though it was very clear from the beginning that that were at an unusually high risk of complications and death than the general population.
Snuze: Needs another Swede
> DipodomysDeserti
06/01/2020 at 18:18 |
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Ever been tear gassed? That shit clears you out from the very bottom of your lungs to the top of your sinuses . I was spewing all sorts of colors out of my nose and mouth for an hour afterwards. Hell, that may end up being the cure for COVID, just flush everything out.
(I got gassed in the Navy... everyone in bootcamp was. Its part of gas mask training).
Cé hé sin
> DipodomysDeserti
06/01/2020 at 18:21 |
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It’s really difficult to compare one country’s figures with another. Some include only deaths in hospitals, others include cases (suspected or confirmed) in any location. Some don’t reliably report figures (Iran and China are suspected of far more than they let on).
In many cases nursing homes are the real issue as once the virus gets in it’ll spread very fast and with high mortality.
For Sweden
> DipodomysDeserti
06/01/2020 at 18:25 |
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The pandemic is over yo
VincentMalamute-Kim
> Cé hé sin
06/01/2020 at 18:38 |
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Everyone is suspect. It’s in the ruling party’s interest to maximize how well they’re doing. Florida and Georgia are accused of shenanigans. Recording COVID deaths as pneumonia (technically correct
), making their health officials alter numbers in that manner, firing them when they don’t.
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VincentMalamute-Kim
> Cé hé sin
06/01/2020 at 18:38 |
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Everyone is suspect. It’s in the ruling party’s interest to maximize how well they’re doing. Florida and Georgia are accused of shenanigans. Recording COVID deaths as pneumonia (technically correct
), making their health officials alter numbers in that manner, firing them when they don’t.
SilentButNotReallyDeadly...killed by G/O Media
> Cé hé sin
06/01/2020 at 18:40 |
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This.
The one figure that is available for some countries but not many is the so called ‘ excess deaths’.
Average daily death rates for most countries are generally well understood. The key is to look at the average daily death rates whilst under the impact of a Covid pandemic and the difference (excess deaths ) is likely mostly attributable to either the virus or the societal response to it...
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ranwhenparked
> Cé hé sin
06/01/2020 at 18:41 |
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Nursing homes should have been singled out from the beginning for an intensive lockdown and isolation - we already knew that even the ordinary flu can have mortality rates close to 10% when it gets lose in a nursing home and starts spreading room to room in the closed population, and this was well known to be several times worse than the flu from the beginning.
It shouldn’t have been so freaking difficult to lock them down and protect them. We’ve had a better track record of protecting prisoners. Not that we shouldn’t be protecting them, of course, but just pointing out the different response with different risk levels - a lot of them are younger and in damn good shape.
RallyWrench
> DipodomysDeserti
06/01/2020 at 18:45 |
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I think I remember reading something about Belgium’s death count and how their counting method is different than most.
Found it
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52491210
fintail
> DipodomysDeserti
06/01/2020 at 18:56 |
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I suspect this is like comparing unemployment numbers - tough when definitions aren’t set in stone.
And I am maybe as likely to believe data from certain American regions as from PRC or DPRK.
MUSASHI66
> VincentMalamute-Kim
06/01/2020 at 19:01 |
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Well, Colorado recorded deaths as COVID regardless of the death cause, as long as the person had COVID. A super drunk dude with .5 bac died from alcohol poisoning, it was recorded as a COVID casualty. It goes both ways.
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DipodomysDeserti
> Cé hé sin
06/01/2020 at 19:04 |
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True, but I would hope first world, western nations would be close enough in how they report mortality rates (an actual epidemiological figure), that it wouldn’t skew results too much. We knew nursing homes were the real issue when this thing first got here, yet we still chose to lock everyone down.
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DipodomysDeserti
> VincentMalamute-Kim
06/01/2020 at 19:06 |
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I’m not a conspiracy theorist, and doubt state governments have too much sway over the numbers being reported by private hospitals. If anything, nurses and doctors would start speaking out (as they have on other issues), if they’re seeing lots of people dying and numbers not matching up.
This is Johns Hopkins, not Infowars.
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DipodomysDeserti
> Snuze: Needs another Swede
06/01/2020 at 19:08 |
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My brother got tear gassed Saturday night by Scottsdale PD. He was already getting the fuck out of there, so he only got a wafting.
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DipodomysDeserti
> fintail
06/01/2020 at 19:08 |
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Everyone is a conspiracy theorist when data doesn’t fit their narrative.
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DipodomysDeserti
> SilentButNotReallyDeadly...killed by G/O Media
06/01/2020 at 19:10 |
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Looking at average daily anything is a really poor way to compute any sort of statistics, especially with disease, since healthcare practices improve and adapt as more is learned.
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DipodomysDeserti
> VincentMalamute-Kim
06/01/2020 at 19:11 |
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I guess it’s a good thing political parties aren’t in charge of collecting and extrapolating public health data in the US or western Europe.
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VincentMalamute-Kim
> DipodomysDeserti
06/01/2020 at 19:16 |
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I respect Johns Hopkins. Their
data is dependent on what the states report.
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VincentMalamute-Kim
> MUSASHI66
06/01/2020 at 19:18 |
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There are also errors and mistakes. See my response to Dipodomys about alleged systemic practices.
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DipodomysDeserti
> RallyWrench
06/01/2020 at 19:18 |
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Thanks for that. They’re counting unconfirmed, but suspected cases, but only in care homes, as covid cases. Not sure why you’d do that, but that’s what they’re doing. It both adds to the number of cases, but they all end up being fatal. Makes it look a lot worse than it is. Home of the EU, everyone!
Roadkilled
> DipodomysDeserti
06/01/2020 at 19:20 |
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What’s up with Belgium? The BBC has the answer.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52491210
tldr; Belgian officials say they are counting in a way that no other country in the world is currently doing: counting deaths in hospitals and care homes, but including deaths in care homes that are suspected, not confirmed, as Covid-19 cases.
According to Belgium’s latest official figures, out of 7,703 deaths, 53% have been in care homes. Some 16% of deaths in care homes were tested positive for coronavirus. The rest are suspected. That means more than 3,500 deaths have been counted as caused by Covid-19, but not confirmed
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fintail
> DipodomysDeserti
06/01/2020 at 19:27 |
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Yeah, the Rebekah Jones incident isn’t suspect. FL is definitely firmly in the first world and is a model for a just and modern society.
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Snuze: Needs another Swede
> DipodomysDeserti
06/01/2020 at 19:28 |
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They locked us in a room, with gas masks on, lit one off, and then made us take the masks off . Then one by one we had to recite name, rank, and serial number. Only after our whole row (12 recruits) finished were we allowed out of the room. 0/10, was not fun, would not recommend.
I wasn’t on ship’s security force, but the guys that were also had to get pepper sprayed. My roommate was one of them and after his first “certification spray” I ended up taking him to the ER because it turns out he’s one of a very small percentage of people who are allergic to it.
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fintail
> MUSASHI66
06/01/2020 at 19:29 |
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If COVID pushed them over the edge, they are a COVID casualty, no matter their other issues.
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SilentButNotReallyDeadly...killed by G/O Media
> DipodomysDeserti
06/01/2020 at 20:07 |
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I’m not referring to disease or even cause of death...just death. And, on any normal given day across a country , the number of dead people is similar, day in, day out. Call it mean, average, median or about the same but it’s nothing if not a trend. That’s just simple mathematics.
So what has Covid-19 done to the in-country trend in the daily number of deaths? Is their any influence at all?
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DipodomysDeserti
> Snuze: Needs another Swede
06/01/2020 at 20:08 |
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Yeah, all of my closest friends were in the Army and Marines. My roommate in college was in the Air Force. He went through SERE training while living with me, which sounded pretty wild.
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DipodomysDeserti
> fintail
06/01/2020 at 20:23 |
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Lesson one: pay enough attention in biology class so you don’t have to rely on people with geography and journalism degrees to interpret epidemiological information for for. My uncle kept sending me those stupid maps for Arizona. They’re almost completely useless and you have no idea how they’re interpolating the data.
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DipodomysDeserti
> VincentMalamute-Kim
06/01/2020 at 20:28 |
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Dude, you’re an MD. Rebekah Jones is not an epidemiologist, and I hope to god she wasn’t responsible for reporting actual public health data to the feds. Anyone with half a brain knows those interactive state case maps are useless. I have no doubt states have tried to skew visuals in order to sway public opinion. Johns Hopkins researchers know better than to use that kind of data.
I just found out that Belgium has been included “suspected” nursing home deaths in their totals without any testing, making Georgia look pretty good.
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DipodomysDeserti
> For Sweden
06/01/2020 at 20:29 |
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Sure seems like it. Covid season is over, time for riot season.
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Snuze: Needs another Swede
> DipodomysDeserti
06/01/2020 at 20:33 |
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I never did SERE... on a submarine SERE training is bacially “hold your breath and swim!” But it sounds wild.
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MUSASHI66
> fintail
06/01/2020 at 20:37 |
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And how do you determine that?
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fintail
> MUSASHI66
06/01/2020 at 20:46 |
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No different than if you have cancer and get hit by a car, you were killed by a car.
Why is it a problem?
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VincentMalamute-Kim
> DipodomysDeserti
06/01/2020 at 20:48 |
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“
Dude, you’re an MD.” -
I feel that comment is not relevant or necessary.
Jones’ case would just be an example of political pressure on facts. It doesn’t matter that she’s not an epidemiologist.
I know what you’re saying about hopefully doctors reporting cases correctly. I didn’t look into where Hopkins is getting their data - at that level or the state gov’t level.
MDs are human-including
susceptibility to pressure from their employers. S
ome docs will alter facts if their hospital employer tells them to. Maybe
your first sentence is relevant as
I know this personally that many (most?
)
hospitals will put
profit and PR reasons first.
It could be Belgium is the model for accuracy. “Suspected” in COVID cases may be good enough - the clinical signs and symptoms can be just as accurate in the appropriate
clinical situation.
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fintail
> DipodomysDeserti
06/01/2020 at 20:49 |
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We can agree on that. I don’t trust any of it on any side - as there appears to be no standard on how to tabulate the stats. Reminds me of unemployment numbers which differ in methodolo gy from country to country, and also often have political motives. Both the lockdown and open up people will do what they can to appear not to have made an error, as almost certainly both of them have made errors.
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ranwhenparked
> For Sweden
06/01/2020 at 20:54 |
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At any rate, the lockdowns and social distancing probably are. Kinda hard to tell somebody that they can’t go to work to pay their rent or feed their family, when there’s thousands and thousands of people out on the streets setting fire to buildings and looting businesses. The rioters have pretty well made any discussion of continued social distancing pretty damn pointless, we all might as well just get on with it and deal with whatever comes.
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DipodomysDeserti
> VincentMalamute-Kim
06/01/2020 at 20:56 |
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We have no idea what or if she was being pressured to do. She was apart of setting up the internet portal to build those screwy maps to dumb down data for the public.
If Belgium ends up being the more accurate model, we should thank Georgia for accidentally being more accurate.
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ranwhenparked
> SilentButNotReallyDeadly...killed by G/O Media
06/01/2020 at 21:01 |
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I believe we usually see about 2.5 million deaths a year in the US from all sources, so that’s like 6,850 a day or so. That would be about the baseline for comparisons. We’re on day 153 now, so it should be averaging out to about 700 extra per day nationwide, if all the numbers add up.
EDIT: My statistic was a few years out of date, looks like the CDC has averaged it to 2.8 million deaths per year for the 2010-2017 period, so that’s a normal rate of 7,671 per day.
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VincentMalamute-Kim
> DipodomysDeserti
06/01/2020 at 21:04 |
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Equivalent to ‘fog of war’ - we’ll find out what was true or not in a few years once we’ve actually learned enough
about this virus
.
OPPOsaurus WRX
> DipodomysDeserti
06/01/2020 at 21:15 |
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the riots are a side affect of the 5G induced Covid
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SilentButNotReallyDeadly...killed by G/O Media
> ranwhenparked
06/01/2020 at 21:36 |
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There you go.
There will almost certainly be seasonal variation so it would perhaps be more appropriate to go for seasons, quarters or (at best) months rather than days or weeks.
So...at the end of 2020 then we can look back and see what the actual impact of Covid-19 might have been in a given national or perhaps state scale population ... anywhere in the world where such data is available.
It's been done before... Europe does it to calculate the impact of heatwaves or cold snaps, for example.
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MUSASHI66
> fintail
06/01/2020 at 21:44 |
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So you have stage 4 cancer, get COVID, die of cancer, and get recorded as dying of COVID?
Car comparison is, frankly, stupid.
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fintail
> MUSASHI66
06/01/2020 at 22:46 |
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M aybe if the person hit by the car survived and later was claimed by cancer,sure.
Like if one has Parkinson’s and then contracts ebola - ebola did it.
Your opinion of the car comparison is duly noted.
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DipodomysDeserti
> Roadkilled
06/01/2020 at 23:58 |
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That sounds like a really bad way to collect public health data. I guess that’s why they’re the only ones doing it. Too much high ABV beer.
pip bip - choose Corrour
> DipodomysDeserti
06/02/2020 at 05:06 |
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we here in Australia are lucky by comparison
7K cases and only 103 dead.